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NDIS Future: Funding and Sustainability Outlook for Participants

By Hazel Chen · 16 October 2026

NDIS Future: Funding and Sustainability Outlook for Participants

NDIS Funding Under Scrutiny: Experts Question Cuts, Point to Alternative Revenue

Changes Underway for the NDIS

Significant changes are unfolding for the National Disability Insurance Scheme (NDIS), with recent legislation passing and the first funding reductions now beginning. These cuts are already impacting participants, families, and the vital support services they rely on.

At a recent summit in Canberra, leading disability advocates and experts gathered to discuss these changes, exploring whether there’s a better way forward than cutting essential support.

The ‘Choices Matter’ Discussion

The ‘Revenue Summit,’ organised by an independent think tank, hosted a panel discussion titled ‘Choices matter: why collecting more revenue is more efficient than cutting the NDIS.’ Key speakers included Megan Spindler-Smith, CEO of People With Disability Australia (PWDA); Muriel Cummins, President of the Occupational Therapy Society and a member of the Every Australian Counts Steering Committee; and Sophie Cusworth, CEO of Women With Disabilities Australia. Their shared message was clear: there are alternatives to NDIS cuts.

Why the NDIS Was Created

For years, the discussion around the NDIS has often focused heavily on its cost. However, speakers at the summit reminded attendees of the scheme’s fundamental purpose: to provide essential, individualized support for people with disability.

Before the NDIS, disability support systems were often fractured, underfunded, and difficult to access, leaving many to go without or rely on unpaid family care. The NDIS was designed to change this, ensuring equitable access regardless of postcode or economic privilege.

Beyond its social benefits, the NDIS also provides significant economic advantages. Reports indicate that it brings approximately $2.25 back into the economy for every dollar spent.

The Real-World Impact of Funding Cuts

Advocates warn that these cuts, now implemented, will directly reduce the support people rely on to live their lives. An independent think tank estimates these reductions could lead to a loss of 94 million hours of paid support each year across Australia.

Furthermore, these changes could see around 52,000 jobs disappear from disability and social assistance services. This means families and ageing carers might be forced out of their own jobs, and people with disability could lose the support needed to stay employed and participate in the community.

Pressure on State Services and Families

The consequences of NDIS cuts extend beyond individual participants and providers, placing immense pressure on already stretched state government services. For example, in March, reports indicated that 328 people in NSW hospitals were awaiting NDIS supports before they could be safely discharged. These new cuts risk making such situations worse, especially for those without informal support networks.

States and territories are already facing their own revenue challenges. NSW alone expects $5.3 billion less in stamp duty revenue over four years. State governments have also stated clearly that they cannot fill the gaps left by federal NDIS cuts.

While the Commonwealth may count these as ‘savings,’ the experts at the summit highlighted that the costs simply shift to states, families, and ultimately, to people with disability.

Addressing Concerns Without Cutting Support

Government justifications for the cuts have included concerns about NDIS expenditure, fraud, and exploitation. While speakers at the summit agreed that fraud must be stamped out and public money spent effectively, they strongly argued that cutting people’s essential support is not the way to achieve this.

Instead, these discussions have “fanned the flames of a deeply damaging public debate” about the value of people with disability to the community, according to the CEO of People With Disability Australia. “It feels like having your right to live safely, independently and with dignity treated as something I must prove I am worth having,” she shared, reflecting the emotional toll of such debates.

A Choice of Revenue, Not Cuts

A key message from the summit was that Australia had a choice about how to fund its essential services. Independent economic analysis suggests that collecting more revenue from other sources could fund the NDIS without reducing vital support.

For instance, a 25% tax on gas exports is estimated to raise almost $68 billion over four years – significantly more than the approximately $35 billion expected to be ‘saved’ through NDIS cuts. Meanwhile, the mining industry is projected to receive $22 billion in fuel tax credits.

The experts highlighted that options exist to sustain essential supports while also tackling fraud and inefficiency, rather than cutting services for those who need them most.

Looking Ahead: What This Means for You

Australia is a wealthy nation, and the question, according to the summit’s speakers, is not whether the country can afford the NDIS. Rather, it’s about the choices made regarding revenue collection and what the community expects people with disability to live without.

For NDIS participants, families, carers, and providers, these discussions underscore the importance of staying informed and advocating for the NDIS’s original intent. Understanding the broader economic context and the impact of these changes is crucial.

Connect with advocacy groups, share your experiences, and continue to highlight the invaluable role the NDIS plays in fostering independent, dignified lives for Australians with disability. Your voice is important in shaping the future of this vital scheme.

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Hazel Chen

I work in marketing and communications for NDIS Local, helping connect NDIS participants, families, and providers with clear, useful information about the sector. I'm passionate about making the NDIS easier to understand and navigate, and about giving disability service providers a platform to reach the people who need them. If you'd like to know more about anything covered in this post, or you're a provider interested in being featured, feel free to get in touch.